Remember that £5bn pledge by the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to have “gigabit broadband sprouting in every home” by the end of 2025 (here)? Perhaps unsurprisingly, it now looks like the Government are watering down their language on that to “go as far as we possibly can by 2025.”
Yesterday ISPreview.co.uk published a summary of everything we know about how the Government’s gigabit broadband strategy was likely to be delivered (here), although in our view – and that of many in the wider telecoms industry – actually achieving universal coverage of “gigabit-capable” broadband connectivity by the end of 2025 remains a very difficult proposition (without some kind of further fudge on technology, dates or speeds etc.).
Until now the Government has repeatedly acknowledged that their target is “very ambitious,” although they’ve also reiterated that 2025 remains the goal. However, a debate on Broadband Delivery, which took place in the House of Commons today, saw the SNP’s John Nicolson challenge the UK Minister for Digital Infrastructure, Matt Warman, on this point.
In response Matt Warman said, “we will work as hard as we possibly can to go as far as we possibly can by 2025.” Now that’s fair enough, but it’s also not quite the guarantee that many may be expecting, particularly given Boris Johnson’s earlier language and enthusiasm for meeting such targets on time.
John Nicolson asked:
“I am concerned that the Government have gone completely silent on their 2025 roll-out target for gigabyte-capable broadband; instead, we are told that it will be delivered as soon as possible. It has been five months since the Secretary of State last pledged in the House the Government’s commitment to the Conservative manifesto promise.
No statement has been made, and industry voices are growing anxious that without immediate action to address the policy barriers, there is simply no chance whatsoever of achieving the target. Meanwhile, thousands of businesses across rural Scotland continue to struggle with archaic internet speeds. For the avoidance of doubt and for the record: 2025—yes or no?”
Matt Warman responded:
“The Government have been clear that we will go as fast as we possibly can. We are removing the barriers that the hon. Gentleman discussed, but it is also right to say that it is an immensely challenging target. Going as fast as possible is the right thing to do, and we will work as hard as we possibly can to go as far as we possibly can by 2025. My ambition is absolutely to reach the number in our manifesto that the hon. Gentleman describes.”
At this point it’s worth remembering that, prior to being elected, the Prime Minister was also promising “full fibre” for all by 2025 and virtually nobody in the industry (none we know of at least) agreed that was a realistic target (here), hence how we eventually got “gigabit-capable” instead, via a more technologically neutral approach.
In fairness, there’s a strong possibility that the UK could get very close to near universal coverage (by premises) of gigabit-capable broadband, but the various models and predictions tend to differ, largely due to issues of uncertainty around overbuild, build pace and the as yet quantity of contractual commitments by operators (i.e. we’ll get a better idea once contracts start to be signed around late 2021).
As we’ve said before, private (commercial) investment currently seems likely to achieve 70%+ without a major state aid intervention, so it’s just a question of how far and fast operators can go to reach the rest over a c.3 year build window until the end of 2025. Anybody with experience of major civil engineering projects like this will tell you that such a time-scale is incredibly short for the kind of work required.
